A new discussion paper by International IDEA warns that democracy in the Western Balkans is entering a period of deep uncertainty, shaped by shifting global dynamics and internal structural challenges. The report explores how the region’s democratic future could evolve by 2040 through four alternative scenarios, ranging from successful EU-driven consolidation to authoritarian decline. The analysis highlights key drivers such as civil society strength, media freedom, political leadership and external influence, particularly from the European Union. While the scenarios are not predictions, they aim to help policymakers, civil society and citizens better prepare for emerging risks and opportunities. The report emphasizes that current trends—including democratic stagnation, geopolitical competition and demographic pressures, will play a decisive role in shaping the region’s trajectory. Read more here.
Source: International IDEA
